A Systems Approach to Study the Malaysian Pepper Industry

Malaysian pepper industry is facing supply constraints which may affect its future. The system dynamics model provides a framework for understanding the dynamics and feedback structure of the Malaysian pepper supply and demand systems. The choice was made based on the ability of this model in capturing complexity and feedback relationship. The pepper model integrates key elements such as area, production, inventory, price, profitability and demand. The research question is: What are the likely future trends of pepper supply and demand under the different price conditions? The situation requires one to seek a methodology that could explain the complexity of the system and to establish an insight on the interrelation of the key variables. Simulation results indicate that the pepper area is expected to increase rapidly over the next decades, however production is expected to grow slowly because of the low productivity and price volatility.