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10 articles for “Volatility forecasting”
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Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleSuitability of Volatility Models for Forecasting Stock Market Returns: A Study on the Indian National Stock ExchangeTrilochan Tripathy, Luis A. Gil-AlanaProblem statement: Measuring volatility is an important issue for stock market traders. Also, volatility has been used as a proxy for riskiness associated with the asset. This study aims to compare the different volatility models based on how well they model the volatility of the India NSE. Approach: The study has made use of five models which are Historical/Rolling Window … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 7, Issue 11 · 8 Nov 2010 · 7,851 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleModeling and Forecasting Volatility of the Malaysian Stock MarketsAhmed Shamiri, Zaidi IsaProblem statement: One of the main purposes of modeling variance is forecasting, which is crucial in many areas of finance. Despite the burgeoning interest in and evaluation of volatility forecasts, a clear consensus on witch volatility model/or distribution specification to use has not yet been reached. Therefore, the out of-sample forecasting ability should be a natural model selection criterion for … …Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 5, Issue 3 · 30 Sep 2009 · 7,900 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleModelling and Forecasting Volatility of Returns on the Ghana Stock Exchange Using Garch ModelsFrimpong Joseph Magnus, Oteng-Abayie Eric FosuThis paper models and forecasts volatility (conditional variance) on the Ghana Stock Exchange using a random walk (RW), GARCH(1,1), EGARCH(1,1), and TGARCH(1,1) models. The unique ‘three days a week’ Databank Stock Index (DSI) was used to study the dynamics of the Ghana stock market volatility over a 10-year period. The competing volatility models were estimated and their specification and forecast … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue 10 · 31 Oct 2006 · 7,551 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the keywordsFORECASTING RETURNS FOR THE STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSISNop Sopipan, Anchalee Sattayatham, Samruam ChongcharoenThe aim of this study was to forecast the returns for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index by adding some explanatory variables and stationary Autoregressive Moving-Average order p and q (ARMA (p, q)) in the mean equation of returns. In addition, we used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to remove possible complications caused by multicollinearity. Afterwards, we forecast the volatility … …Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 · 18 Mar 2013 · 7,438 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the keywordsForecasting the Stock Exchange of Thailand uses Day of the Week Effect and Markov Regime Switching GARCHP. Sattayatham, N. Sopipan, B. PremanodeProblem statement: We forecast return and volatility of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index. Approach: In this study, we modeled the SET Index returns using mean equation with day of the week effect and autoregressive moving-average. Next we forecast the volatility of the SET Index by using the GARCH-type model and the Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) model. Results: … …American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Vol. 4, Issue 1 · 15 Mar 2012 · 7,865 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the abstractImplementing a Hybrid VMD–BiTCN–BiGRU Architecture With Intelligent Optimization for Agricultural Commodity Price Prognostication in Gujarat MarketsJignesh Hirapara, Ratnesh Kumar Namdeo, Ankit Kumar Dubey et al.In the agricultural sector, the prices of pulses require adequate forecasting to plan farming activities, store and market, and guide policy-making. However, the pulse price series is highly volatile, seasonal, nonstationary, and nonlinear, and thus conventional linear time series models are not necessarily very effective. In the suggested framework, the raw price data series is decomposed using Variational Mode Decomposition … …Journal of Computer Science, Vol. 22, Issue 7 · 1 Aug 2026 · 1,021 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the abstractSales Forecasting Models: Comparison between ARIMA, LSTM and ProphetDmitry BrykinSales forecasting is crucial for business planning and resource allocation. Data-driven approaches have become popular in this field. This study compares the performance of three forecasting models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Prophet within the context of specific sales categories derived from acquiring data provided by a bank. This study uses a time series dataset … …Journal of Computer Science, Vol. 20, Issue 10 · 1 Aug 2024 · 7,981 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the abstractA Hybrid Artificial Neural Network Model for Option PricingHanningtone Meshack Simiyu, Anthony Gichuhi Waititu, Jane Aduda AkinyiIn the absence of a well-defined input selection technique associated with the pure ANN models, Option pricing using pure ANN models while relaxing the assumption of constant volatility remains a challenge. The conservative drill espoused has been to make allowances for a large number of input lags with the confidence that the ability of ANN to integrate suppleness and redundancy … …Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 15, Issue 1 · 8 Aug 2019 · 7,410 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the abstractVolatility in Malaysian Stock Market: An Empirical Study Using Fractionally Integrated ApproachChin Wen CheongThis study explores the fractionally integrated (FI) time series analysis in Malaysian stock market. Four proxies of latent volatility, namely the absolute return, squared return and range-based (Parkinson and Garman and Klass) volatilities are selected for the empirical studies. In addition, the well-known FI autoregressive conditional variance (ARCH) type model is also taken into account for comparison purposes. Our empirical … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 5, Issue 6 · 30 Jun 2008 · 6,706 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessIn the abstractA Generalized Discrete-Time Long Memory Volatility Model for Financial Stock ExchangeChin Wen CheongWe proposed a simple way to combine a few long memory models in financial market volatility modeling using daily, range and high frequency data. This model was able to fit the return, range of daily return or realized volatility under a parametric heavy-tailed distribution. Model was flexible to include additional volatility information as the contemporaneous variables. Empirical results found that … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 4, Issue 12 · 31 Dec 2007 · 6,869 accessesView PDFCite