Research ArticleOpen accessIn the author namesAdaptive Cross-Validation Under Concept Drift for Time Series ForecastingKunjira Kingphai, Prapakorn Kanjina, Kamol Sanittham, Wacharong WongsanurakTime-series forecasting often involves non-stationary data, making i.i.d. validation unreliable and fixed-window protocols vulnerable to leakage and biased error estimates. We propose Adaptive Time-Series Cross-Validation (ATSCV), a drift-aware evaluation framework that uses statistical change-point detection to partition each series into contiguous, approximately stationary regimes, followed by forward-chaining folds that respect those boundaries. By aligning train–validation splits with distributional changes (with … …Journal of Computer Science, Vol. 22, Issue 7 · 7 Jul 2026 · 1,488 accessesView PDFCite