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216 articles for “Forecast”
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Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleEfficiency and Forecast Performance of Commodity Futures MarketsBernardina Algieri, Matthias KalkuhlThe present study empirically investigates market efficiency and the potential factors of inefficiency in the main non-energy commodity futures markets: maize, soybeans and wheat. With efficient markets, futures prices can be used as commodity price forecasts, with inefficient markets futures prices are not able to predict spot prices. Technically, exploring the drivers of inefficiency means to assess the determinants of … …American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Vol. 11, Issue 1 · 10 Jun 2019 · 8,375 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleA Time Series Forecasting for the Cumulative Confirmed and Critical Cases of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) ModelSamer H. Atawneh, Osamah A.M. Ghaleb, Ahmad MohdAziz Hussein et al.Reviews at present, different machine learning techniques and algorithms have been applied for predicting significant factors of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) such as the outbreak and diagnosis. In this study, the most accurate time series forecasting model, namely, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is used to forecast the expected cumulative number of confirmed and critical cases in Saudi … …Journal of Computer Science, Vol. 16, Issue 9 · 30 Sep 2020 · 7,596 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleAnalysis of Artificial Neural Network Point Forecasting Models and Prediction Intervals for Solar Irradiance EstimationAntônio Fabrício Guimarães de Sousa, Helaine Cristina Moraes Furtado, Wilson Negrão Macêdo, Anderson Alvarenga de Moura MenesesAn accurate knowledge on solar irradiance prediction is particularly required for proper development and planning of Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems. The main purpose of the present research is to assess the accuracy of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) short-term forecast of univariate solar irradiance time series, with conventional point prediction and Prediction Intervals (PIs), comparing models. The Lower Upper Bound Estimation … …American Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 13, Issue 3 · 17 Jul 2020 · 7,440 accessesView PDFCite
Review ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleArtificial Intelligence Techniques and External Factors used in Crime Forecasting in Violence and Property: A ReviewRebaz Mala Nabi, Soran Ab. M. Saeed, Habibollah HaronCrime forecasting is beneficial in providing useful information to authorities in planning effective crime prevention measures. The two types of analysis used in crime forecasting are univariate and multivariate. Comparatively, multivariate analysis provides better forecasting accuracy because of its ability to discover crime patterns not previously seen. Crime is strongly influenced by several external factors, including economic, social and demographic. … …Journal of Computer Science, Vol. 16, Issue 2 · 19 Feb 2020 · 7,918 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleUtilization of Holt's Forecasting Model for Zakat Collection in IndonesiaAkbarizan, Muhammad Marizal, M. Soleh et al.The practice of zakat is gaining popularity in Indonesia. This development is attributed to the strong role of the government in consistently developing zakat infrastructure and the increased awareness of people to practice zakat. Despite this success, a mechanism for predicting future zakat collection has not yet been developed. This study applies Holt's exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 13, Issue 12 · 22 Dec 2016 · 7,499 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleForecasting of Banana Production in BangladeshMd. Moyazzem Hossain, Faruq Abdulla, Ajit Kumar MajumderIn Bangladesh, banana is a very popular fruit and cultivated almost everywhere round the year. Rank of Bangladesh is 14 among the top 20 banana producing countries in the world. It is a commercial fruit, but in Bangladesh it is grown in limited area commercially. The demand of banana is increasing day by day in Bangladesh. Thus, this paper attempts … …American Journal of Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Vol. 11, Issue 2 · 16 Jun 2016 · 9,649 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleDAILY CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECASTING MODEL USING ARIMA, GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSCEDASTIC AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINESRana Abdullah Ahmed, Ani Bin ShabriCrude oil price forecasting is gaining increased interest globally. This interest is due mainly to the economic value attached to the product. For this reason, new forecasting methods are proposed in the literature. This paper proposes a novel technique for forecasting crude oil price based on Support Vector Machines (SVM). The study adopts the data on crude oil price of … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 11, Issue 3 · 11 Jan 2014 · 8,725 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleNew Car Demand Modeling and Forecasting Using Bass Diffusion ModelZuhaimy Ismail, Noratikah AbuForecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. The building of Bass diffusion model for forecasting new product within the Malaysian society is presented … …American Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 10, Issue 6 · 3 Jun 2013 · 7,332 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleA STUDY ON NEW PRODUCT DEMAND FORECASTING BASED ON BASS DIFFUSION MODELZuhaimy Ismail, Noratikah AbuA forecasting model of new product demand has been developed and applied to forecast new vehicle demand in Malaysia. Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, innovation of new diffusion theory has sparked considerable research among marketing science scholars, operational researchers and mathematicians. This study considers the Bass Model for forecasting the diffusion of new products or an … …Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 9, Issue 2 · 29 Apr 2013 · 7,807 accessesView PDFCite
Research ArticleOpen accessEvery word in the titleFORECASTING RETURNS FOR THE STOCK EXCHANGE OF THAILAND INDEX USING MULTIPLE REGRESSION BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSISNop Sopipan, Anchalee Sattayatham, Samruam ChongcharoenThe aim of this study was to forecast the returns for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index by adding some explanatory variables and stationary Autoregressive Moving-Average order p and q (ARMA (p, q)) in the mean equation of returns. In addition, we used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to remove possible complications caused by multicollinearity. Afterwards, we forecast the volatility … …Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 9, Issue 1 · 18 Mar 2013 · 7,438 accessesView PDFCite