Monitoring of the Saiga Population: Balancing Nature and Agriculture

The rapid recovery of the Saiga population (Saiga tatarica) in Kazakhstan represents a significant conservation success; however, it has simultaneously generated complex ecological and socio-economic challenges in steppe ecosystems. This study evaluates the relationships between Saiga population density and pasture ecosystem condition and identifies ecological thresholds relevant to balancing biodiversity conservation and sustainable agricultural land use. The research is based on an integrated interdisciplinary approach combining field surveys, soil physicochemical and microbiological analyses, geospatial technologies (GIS and remote sensing), and multivariate statistical methods. Vegetation parameters, soil quality indicators, and microbial activity were analyzed in relation to Saiga population density across representative steppe ecosystems during the 2021–2023 growing seasons. The results demonstrate a nonlinear association between grazing pressure and ecosystem condition. Moderate population densities within the empirical management range of 10–20 individuals km⁻² were associated with relatively stable vegetation and soil biological functioning, whereas higher population densities and grazing pressure were associated with reduced plant biomass, declining vegetation cover, deterioration of soil properties, and lower microbial activity. During the monitoring period, vegetation cover in intensively grazed areas declined from 81.3±4.2% in 2021 to 68.9±5.1% in 2023, while mean NDVI changed from 0.64 in 2021 to 0.58 in 2022 and 0.60 in 2023. A conceptual ecosystem framework linking Saiga density, vegetation, soil, rhizosphere microbiome, and ecosystem productivity is proposed. Because the study uses an observational design, the identified relationships are interpreted as associations rather than experimentally demonstrated causal mechanisms. The findings support adaptive pasture management based on ecological zoning, remote sensing, monitoring of vegetation and soil indicators, and regulation of grazing pressure.