Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle

Problem statement: The decision of crop selection and the output of agricultural production are highly determined by the environmental factors, especially rainfall and water availability. In the tropical area, particularly in Malaysia, influences of these exogenous variables are so high that overall agricultural productions are now vulnerable. Crops are affected through rainfall in two different ways-high and low rainfalls. Avoiding the problem of low rainfall is nearly possible through irrigation, but over rainfall at the end of crop cycle causes destructive damages of the output. Approach: This study uses descriptive statistics to analyze the fact and uses unit root test to measure the predictability of rainfall. The raw data is taken from 8 stations from 1980 to 2007. Results: Shifting crop cycle is also not fruitful due to un-predictive changes of rainfall. All combination of crop cycle is also affected in a similar way. Government subsidy in agricultural sector is remarkably increasing, but farmers are not able to cope properly with the environmental changes, especially for the cash crops and seasonal crops production. Conclusion: Under this circumstance, in the short run, adaptation approaches should be followed in farmer level and policy level. In the long run, technological advancement will play the most crucial role to solve the problem.