Bayesian Framework in Repeated-Play Decision Making

Problem statement: There have been much reported on decisions from experience, also referred to as decisions in a complete ignorance fashion. Approach: This note lays out a Bayesian decision-theoretical framework that provides a computable account for decisions from experience. Results: To make the framework more tractable, this note sets up and examines decisions in an incomplete ignorance fashion. The current discussion asserts that well-known behavioural effects, such as the hot stove effect and the Bayesian framework may lead to different predictions. Conclusion/Recommendations: The framework is applied to the continuity form to predict a possibility from their experience. We conclude that the reasonable prediction is sometimes leads them to the unreasonable conditions.